The ballot initiative to repeal Measure 11 not only drastically reduces sentences for the most serious crimes, but also calls for the resentencing of all offenders sentenced under Measure 11. If Measure 11 is repealed, hundreds of people who have committed serious crimes will be released. The proponents of repeal have denied this on more than one occasion, but it is a fact.

The repeal initiative states:

Any person sentenced under the repealed provision of law listed in Section 2 above, shall be resentenced by the Court of conviction in accordance with the Oregon Revised Statutes and the rules of the Oregon Criminal Justice Commission that were in effect on March 31, 1995, unless the person requests not to be resentenced.

The rules referenced above specify minimum sentences that are one-third to one-half of the Measure 11 minimum sentences. It is certain that, if Measure 11 is repealed, hundreds of violent criminals, including murderers and rapists, will have their sentences sharply reduced, and many, having already served the shorter sentence, will be released within 90 days of repeal.

The Oregon Criminal Justice Commission, which writes the rules for the Measure 94 sentencing system, estimates that 800 prisoners will be released in the first 90 days alone. Here is an email exchange between Crime Victims United and the director the the Oregon Criminal Justice Commission, Phil Lemman.

To: LEMMAN Phil <Phillip.Lemman@ODE-EX1.ODE.STATE.OR.US>
From: Howard Rodstein <hrodstein@crimevictimsunited.org>
Sent: Monday, August 21, 2000 9:29 AM
Subject: Measure 94 Release Estimates

Have you made an estimate of the number of people who would be
released within 90 days if Measure 94 is passed, or do you know
if DOC or any other state agency has made such an estimate?

Howard Rodstein
Crime Victims United


From: LEMMAN Phil <Phillip.Lemman@ODE-EX1.ODE.STATE.OR.US>
To: Howard Rodstein <hrodstein@crimevictimsunited.org>
Subject: RE: Measure 94 Release Estimates
Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2000 17:39:19 -0700
MIME-Version: 1.0

We estimate that about 800 people currently serving BM 11
sentences will be released after their re-sentencing hearings. 

Prior to receiving this estimate from the Oregon Criminal Justice Commission, Crime Victims United made an estimate of 1300 releases. Here is the reasoning we used.

The State of Oregon's Office of Economic Assessment does a bi-annual study in which they address the impact of Measure 11 on state prisons. "Impact" means the number of Measure 11 offenders in prison on a particular date who would be out of prison under the pre-Measure 11 sentencing guidelines.

The April 2000 study puts the direct Measure 11 impact as of July 2000 at approximately 1300* offenders. The inescapable conclusion is that these offenders, including people convicted of robbery, assault, rape, manslaughter and attempted murder, will be released if Measure 11 is repealed.

* The study shows a total impact of 2028 beds for July 2000. This number includes people convicted of Measure 11 crimes (direct impact) and people convicted of "Measure-11 related" crimes (indirect impact). The study's estimate for July 2001 shows that approximately two-thirds of the total impact is direct. Two-thirds of 2028 is about 1350. To be conservative, we use the figure 1300.

We concede that the Oregon Criminal Justice System has better resources to make this estimate than we do, so willing to make our argument against Measure 94 under the assumption that their estimate of 800 violent criminals and sex offenders released in the first 90 days is correct.

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